Buffett indicator

Models updated quarterly. Become a member for weekly model updates, aggregate valuation model access, and more. The Buffett Indicator (aka, Buffett Index, or Buffett Ratio) is the ratio of the total United States stock market to GDP. This ratio fluctuates over time since the value of the stock market can be very volatile, but GDP tends to grow much more predictably. The current ratio of 219% is approximately 64.84% (or about 2.1 standard deviations) above the historical trend line, suggesting that the stock market is Strongly Overvalued relative to GDP. For much more analysis and information on the data sources, methodology, and counterpoints to this model, continue reading. Weekly Updates: Every model detail page updated weekly with most recent available data. Market Model: Access to the CMV Aggregate Market Value Index , a weekly index score of overall stock market valuation. Member Dashboard: Access a dashboard page summarizing each model and aggregate market value status. Correlations: Members can view detailed charts and metrics about the historical correlation that each valuation model has with subsequent S&P500 performance, over investment horizons from 1-month to 10-years. Downloads: Download up to 70 years historical data for every model in clean .xls format - use to better understand market cycles, or to inform your own market models. Ability to download model data requires Data Download subscription tier. Free Trial: Try membership for free for 7 days. Cancellation is 1-click at any time if you decide it's not for you. After the trial, annual membership renews at $99/yr. Weekly Updates: Every model detail page updated weekly with most recent available data. Market Model: Access to the CMV Aggregate Market Value Index , a weekly index score of overall stock market valuation. Member Dashboard: Access a dashboard page summarizing each model and aggregate market value status. Correlations: Members can view detailed charts and metrics about the historical correlation that each valuation model has with subsequent S&P500 performance, over investment horizons from 1-month to 10-years. Downloads: Download up to 70 years historical data for every model in clean .xls format - use to better understand market cycles, or to inform your own market models. Ability to download model data requires Data Download subscription tier. Free Trial: Try membership for free for 7 days. Cancellation is 1-click at any time if you decide it's not for you. After the trial, annual membership renews at $99/yr. The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of total US stock market value divided by GDP. Named after Warren Buffett, who called the ratio "the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment". (Buffett has since walked back those comments, hesitating to endorse any single measure as either comprehensive or consistent over time, but this ratio remains credited to his name). To calculate the ratio, we need to get data for both metrics: Total Market Value and GDP. For data prior to 1970, the most appropriate data for total stock market value is Z.1 Financial Account - Nonfinancial corporate business; corporate equities; liability, Level, published by the Federal Reserve, which provides a quarterly estimate of total market value back to 1945. These combined data are shown below. The current estimate of composite US stock market value is $69.15T. Weekly Updates: Every model detail page updated weekly with most recent available data. Market Model: Access to the CMV Aggregate Market Value Index , a weekly index score of overall stock market valuation. Member Dashboard: Access a dashboard page summarizing each model and aggregate market value status. Correlations: Members can view detailed charts and metrics about the historical correlation that each valuation model has with subsequent S&P500 performance, over investment horizons from 1-month to 10-years. Downloads: Download up to 70 years historical data for every m